Forecasting commercial nuclear fusion

CamIn identified 3 likely best-practice scenarios for commercial fusion and highlighted potential partners and acquisition targets for the client aligned with these approaches.

The client is now refining its investment thesis with a view to working with CamIn on detailed due diligence projects.

CamIn derisked the client’s investment in fusion, providing the foundations for its intended $10 million portfolio.

What is nuclear fusion?

Nuclear fusion is the process of combining light atomic nuclei, typically isotopes of hydrogen like tritium and deuterium, into heavier elements, releasing vast amounts of energy in the process. Unlike nuclear fission, which splits atoms and generates long-lived radioactive waste, fusion has the potential to produce minimal waste and very low carbon emissions. Replicating the conditions found in stars, fusion requires extremely high temperatures and pressures to overcome atomic repulsion, a feat that has long challenged scientists but is now edging closer to feasibility through advanced engineering and plasma physics.

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Why is commercial fusion important for energy transition?

Commercial nuclear fusion has the potential to radically transform the global energy system. Unlike other low-carbon technologies, it offers a unique mix of reliability, scalability, and safety, positioning it as a powerful enabler of long-term decarbonisation. As the world accelerates toward net zero, fusion could become a critical part of the clean energy mix.

• Provides near-limitless clean energy: Fusion has the potential to generate vast amounts of power using abundant fuels like hydrogen isotopes, offering a long-term, sustainable energy source.
• Delivers reliable baseload power: Unlike wind or solar, fusion can supply consistent, dispatchable electricity that supports grid stability and complements intermittent renewables.
• Avoids reliance on fossil fuels and critical minerals: Fusion reduces dependence on volatile hydrocarbon markets and sidesteps the geopolitical risks tied to rare earths and battery metals.
• Minimises safety and waste concerns: Fusion reactions do not produce long-lived radioactive waste and carry no risk of meltdown, addressing many of the issues associated with nuclear fission.
• Supports global net zero goals: With unmatched energy density and scalability, fusion could play a central role in meeting rising energy demand while cutting emissions at a system-wide level.

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What impact will commercial fusion have on the energy industry?

Within the next decade, commercial fusion will move from experimental science to pre-commercial deployment, forcing a strategic rethink across the energy value chain. As demonstration plants come online and technologies mature, fusion will shift from theoretical promise to practical planning consideration, especially for utilities, governments, and industrial energy users preparing for long-term transition.

• Redefines long-term generation strategy: Fusion will begin influencing infrastructure investment decisions, challenging the role of fossil baseload and expanding alternatives to large-scale renewables plus storage.
• Enables national energy security: Fusion could reduce reliance on imported fuels, helping countries stabilise their energy supply with domestically sourced, low-carbon power.
• Triggers new models of power generation: Compact fusion reactors may unlock modular or distributed generation models, particularly for industrial sites or energy-constrained regions.
• Reshapes regulatory and policy frameworks: Regulators will need to adapt to unique features of fusion, including safety, licensing, and grid integration, setting new precedents for next-generation nuclear technologies.
• Accelerates innovation priorities: Early movers in the energy sector will invest in fusion partnerships, pilot projects, and ecosystem development to secure future market position and policy influence.

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What technologies are emerging for commercial nuclear fusion?

A wave of breakthrough technologies is emerging to address critical engineering challenges of commercial nuclear fusion, including plasma confinement and control, fusion fuel sourcing and breeding, heat extraction and energy conversion, and radiation-resistant materials. The leading technological approaches span multiple fusion reactor architectures, including magnetic confinement fusion (e.g. tokamaks, stellarators, and spheromaks), inertial confinement fusion (using laser or particle beam compression), and magnetised target fusion (a hybrid combining compression and magnetic fields).

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Key enabling technologies include:

High-temperature superconducting magnets: These advanced magnets allow stronger magnetic fields in a smaller footprint, enabling more compact and cost-effective reactor designs while improving plasma confinement efficiency.

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Tritium breeding systems , particularly through lithium blanket technologies: These systems generate tritium fuel inside the reactor using lithium-containing materials, helping achieve a self-sustaining fuel cycle and reducing reliance on scarce external tritium sources.

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Plasma heating systems , such as neutral beam injection (NBI) and radiofrequency (RF) heating: These techniques inject high-energy particles or electromagnetic waves into the plasma to raise it to fusion-relevant temperatures, typically exceeding 100 million degrees Celsius.

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Advanced first wall and divertor materials: often made from tungsten or liquid metals – These components face the brunt of the plasma's heat and radiation; using robust, heat-resistant materials protects the reactor structure and extends component lifetimes.

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Liquid metal cooling systems and molten salt heat exchangers: These thermal management systems efficiently remove heat from the reactor core and transfer it to power generation systems, while also helping to moderate neutron damage in certain designs.

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AI-enabled plasma control systems: Real-time machine learning and control algorithms are used to monitor plasma behaviour, suppress instabilities, and ensure continuous, stable operation in complex magnetic confinement environments.

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High-efficiency power conversion systems , such as Rankine cycle turbines or direct energy converters: These technologies convert fusion-generated heat or charged particle energy into electricity with minimal losses, increasing overall plant efficiency and economic viability.

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Startups and research labs are also experimenting with alternative fuels, including aneutronic reactions that reduce neutron-induced damage and simplify shielding requirements. With dozens of private fusion ventures now demonstrating devices at TRLs 4-7, the sector is rapidly transitioning from theoretical science to engineering-driven innovation.